The Century Bug

First of all, "millenium bug" is a misnomer. The fact that this much-ballyhooed programming glitch is taking place during a millennial transition is purely a one-in-ten chance. If computers had been invented in the 1800s, we would have had the same problem with the change from 1899 to 1900. So let's call it what it is - a century bug.

The only difference is that this time around, if they succeed in fixing it, it should last us 1000 years, and maybe 8,000, rather than just 100. Of course, it all goes down the tubes again in 9999 when we have to add another digit. But, barring some radical advancements in medical science, we who are alive today won't have to worry about that.

The biggest worry seems to be that banks are going to falter, despite the precautions they have taken. The problem is that this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If a significant percentage of the population withdraws their accounts as a "precautionary measure," it could spell disaster for the world's banks. Please don't do this!

Of course, there may be a few of you who have already made up your minds to bury your money in the backyard, and there's nothing I can do to change your mind. If this is you, do the world a favor and get to your bank early Monday, Jan. 3, 2000 with a deposit slip and that dirty Mason jar in your hands.

I'm not going to say that this will be a seamless transition, and that we will experience no problems. Some businesses, especially smaller ones who adopted a "wait and see" attitude, may suffer greatly. Even some larger ones who chose their century bug exterminators based on cost alone may live to regret their decisions.

You may also expect shortages of some of your favorite imported products, especially those from third-world countries. Expect an increase in gas and oil prices, too, just because this sounds like it would be a good reason to raise gas and oil prices.

I advise you not to travel too far over the New Years holiday, but don't barricade yourself in a bomb shelter, either. A friend of mine was planning a New Years trip to the Bahamas when I pointed out the problems inherent in being on an island, with its limited resources and technology-dependent means of escape, should cyberspace freeze over. He's since changed his mind and is planning a visit to Daytona Beach instead.

You may want to stock up on some of your favorite goodies, especially those that are sometimes hard to find anyway. But avoid overbuying supplies at the last minute, as this could also lead to a cash demand problem for the banks. Don't hoard a freezer full of meat with the intention of selling it to the starving, unprepared masses. You'll probably just end up throwing lots of barbecues.

Much of the fear involved in this transition stems not from the computer problem, but from the awe one feels when contemplating beginning another 1000 years of human history. Even the changes of centuries have had their doomsayers; it is predictable that a new millenium would have ten times this "end of the world" fervor.

So what does this transition really mean? Nothing. It's merely a coincidental conjunction of the facts that our measurement of time is based on the movements of the earth through space and that our system of counting evolved because we have ten fingers. Jan. 1, 2000 means no more on a cosmic scale than, say, Feb. 23, 2061. The year 2000 is upon us simply because it follows 1999. There's nothing more to it than that.

A real millenium-based dating problem is causing some confusion in the entertainment industry. The practice of using Roman numerals for broadcast copyright dates has led to some interesting attempts at configuring these pre-millennial years. 1998 was not MCMXCVIII, as you may have seen at the end of your favorite show, but MXMVIII. "MXM" is 2000 minus 10, or 1990. So, therefore, 1999 should be MXMIX, right? No. It's MIM. 2000, of course, is MM.

All in all, though, I believe the new year's problems will amount to a minor inconvenience at most. But what if I'm wrong, and the new year greets us with catastrophic shutdowns and apocalyptic conditions? Can you sue me? Sorry, this is a computer-generated column. Such a cataclysm would surely destroy all the evidence.